Official data for the first quarter of 2018-19 has just come out, and it shows GDP galloping at 8.2%.
A look at top macro triggers that may move market on Wednesday
The recent revisions to GDP data, backdated to 1993-94, have sparked intense political debate.
The Council, chaired by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley and comprising his state counterparts, is also expected to finalise a simplified return filing procedure for businesses registered under Goods and Services Tax (GST) regime.
In the 23rd GST council meeting, it was decided that filing of GSTR-2 and GSTR-3 forms would stop and only the filing of GSTR-1 and GSTR-3B would continue.
"Our calculations of potential monthly GST revenue in FY18, assuming 8 per cent year-on-year growth and seasonality of monthly indirect tax revenue,"UBS Securities said.
Taxmen suspect that some companies are misusing the provision and have filed fake returns to claim high transitional credits.
There’s need to jumpstart private capital formation as we cannot fly on one engine, says Chinoy.
The MPC has delivered its second consecutive 25 bps rate hike. The repo rate now stands at 6.5 per cent.
Let's check out what all might matter to Dalal Street during the day.
In case the top line takes a big knock, the optimism on earnings cannot hold.
The ambitious healthcare scheme announced in Budget 2018 is one such point of concern.
“Same time, next year, we will be decently above 11,000.”
The government has indicated that it will limit populist measures in this Budget.
It would be interesting to see whether, in the fourth inning for the current government, the FM plays for a win with goodies for the masses.
It is going to be a tightrope walk. It is a wrong time to provide fiscal stimulus.
This is an outstanding, historic, 10 out of 10 interim budget, says the MoS, Civil Aviation
In its final budget before the general elections, Modi government announced some mega sops for various categories.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led government's sixth and final budget before the polls due by May is supposed to be an interim budget or a Vote on Account.
Explaining the lower GDP growth as against the GVA growth, it said a large subsidy outgo will likely depress the net indirect taxes (NIT) growth which will result in slower GDP.
“The Indian budget in terms of the fiscal numbers more or less were in line with our expectations.”
Innovative measures under e-way bill system is positively going to nullify the idle time spent at check posts for tracking and inspection and make tax compliance easier.
Asia stocks edged higher on Friday and were within reach of record highs.
"GST must be seen as work in progress. It is bound to take some time to stabilise."
This has also come when Reserve Bank of India has also reportedly agreed to give additional dividend to the government.
The 10,500 strike holds the highest amount of open interest among put options at 75 lakh shares.
Most aggressive hybrid schemes had a rough year in 2018. Most of them were in red, while just two schemes managed positive returns.
CBDT renews focus on unexplained cash parked with banks post demonetisation.
The best time to talk about the budget India needs is when there’s still time to change a few things.
Hailed as one of the biggest reforms by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the goods-and-services levy has helped increase tax collections in a country where compliance is historically low.
As the year progresses, tightening of liquidity by central banks cannot be ruled out.
Of late, even BSE chief Ashishkumar Chauhan had been professing a tax on LTCG.
Rupee likely to have a relatively stable year with a falling bias against the dollar.
Tax officials believe some businesses are on a tax holiday since the introduction of GST. That’s because under GST, partial evasion is almost impossible. You pay either 0% or 100%.
Smaller Indian stocks did even better—the BSE midcap index rose 48% while the small cap surged 60% in 2017.
Here’s a lowdown on top macro triggers that may move market on January 14, 2019.
This means govt will now breach its fiscal deficit target for the year of 3.2 per cent of GDP. In the first half of the current fiscal, govt has borrowed 3.72 lakh crore.
If we nurture the micros, the macros will take care of themselves, says the NITI Aayog Vice Chairman.
In reality, it was a volatile year, when both equity and debt markets had rollercoaster ride.
GST collections fell to the lowest since the tax regime was put in place to Rs 80,808 crore in November.
Financial services industry has one of the brightest periods ahead, says Uday Kotak.
If the rural package is close to Rs 50,000-100,000 core, there could be some relief, says Bhardwaj.
Fiscal deficit of 13 states sharply fell by Rs 3.2 trillion in FY18 from Rs 4.3 trillion in FY17, partly on account of the contraction in capital spending.
The stock market wants BJP to continue ruling Gujarat for the sake of political stability.
The rupee fell nearly 1 per cent, or 66 paise, to trade at 70.06 against the US dollar.
The agricultural sector growth rate is unlikely to be more than 2 to 2.5% for the full year.
GST currently has four tax slabs of 5, 12 18 and 28 per cent. There is also a zero per cent tax on certain essential daily use commodities.
Nifty50 ended marginally higher on Monday, but its closing level was the highest daily close in 15 sessions.
Oil prices dipped on Monday ahead of the Christmas holiday break.
The review follows businesses complaining problems in matching invoices while filing July returns.
“Refining being a cyclical, we were not gung ho on growth coming from this segment.”
The Bank Nifty could potentially rise another 1.8 per cent in the current series from Tuesday's closing of 24,222.
Taxmen suspect some companies are misusing the provision and have filed fake returns to claim high transitional credits.
One of the advantageous factor under GST is removal of all the octroi check post and nakas, says Suresh Nandlal Rohira.
Going forward, Indian market is going to be impacted strongly by liquidity stance.
"The rupee is going to weaken faster than the dollar. We expect INR at 66 by this year-end."
“The Brent crude is at $70-72 whereas WTI remains at $66 – the $6 gap has widened.”
Sensex closed 2.50 points down at 35,141, while Nifty settled 6.20 points down at 10,576.
Demand for premium products remained robust during the festive season.
GDP growth is expected to hit 7.4 per cent, a big mark-up from 6.6 per cent in FY18.
Banks and corporates are allowed to pay the TDS or the tax deducted at source for any month by the seventh of the next month. For March, the TDS can be paid on or before April 30.
Let’s check out what all might influence Dalal Street through the day.
Going forward, returns from market will be from earnings growth as P/E expansion is ruled out.
Profit-booking at higher levels kept the equity benchmarks choppy throughout the day.
Benefits including increased tax compliance will likely play out in the medium term.
It's a story about a central govt that's bereft of subtlety and a central bank that masks its mistakes.
"I would look at GST as the other actually the major step which would improve the tax base but I think that would happen over in due course of time."
Almost all the currency demonetised in November found its way back into the banking system,
Goods and services tax is expected to bring all direct as well as indirect taxes within one bracket of taxes and its structure will be uniform across India.
The Karnataka chief minister was at pains to highlight his welfare credentials as his government unveiled its last budget before this year's assembly elections.
It’s time we looked more at export and not domestic demand, says , NITI Aayog VC.
Goyal says he will be back with FM Arun Jaitley after the elections with more announcements for taxpayers.
"It's not clear whether the hit OMCs have to take is going to be limited to Re 1 or more."
The Sensex tanked almost 840 points, posting its biggest singleday loss since November 2016.
Lower receipts from the spectrum auction and lower-than-expected dividends from CPSEs and the RBI were some of the reasons why India may fail to meet fiscal deficit target for FY18, says Finance Minister Arun Jaitley.
The Economic Survey highlights that the eventual outcome in indirect taxes will be affected by the final settlement of the GST collections between the Union and state governments, said Aditi Nayar of ICRA.
In broader markets, opportunities in capital goods, cement, infra and , consumption plays, says Dutt.
Over the last couple of years, there has been a significant re-rating of price-earnings multiples.
Though Modi refused to speak on the Budget, one can get an idea about the govt's budgetary priorities from what Modi emphasised in his interview.
“Return filing under GSTR 3B will continue and the sellers and suppliers should load their invoices, after which details of supply made can be furnished,” said Jaitley.
With the countdown underway, and the Government having more or less done its job, its India Inc. that now needs to keep its foot on the peddle.
"Demonetisation was an attempt to cleanse the behaviour of people at an individual level," Bharat Shah, Executive Director, ASK Group.
While the economic growth bottomed out after slowing to a 13-quarter low of 5.7 per cent, the GDP is seen recovering to 7 per cent over the next few quarters.
A lowdown on top macro triggers that may move market on Monday.
Weighed down by heavy dollar demand, the home currency plunged to an intra-day low of 64.27 before staging a rebound.
"With Rs 50,000-crore borrowing and the increase in T-bill borrowing of about Rs 23,000 crore, the government will end up borrowing an extra Rs 75,000 crore"
“This company has been exiting non-core businesses and is looking to improve their ROEs to double digits by FY19”
A lowdown on top macro triggers that may move market on Friday.
If suggestions are to be followed, entities with revenue below Rs 1.5 crore can be assessed by the states.
There is slowdown on ground but it is more cyclical than structural, says Sivaram
Responding to the five-hour debate, Finance Minister Piyush Goyal said "this government follows the kind of budget making where there is least deviation between the planned and actual estimates".
A lowdown on top macro triggers that may move market on Thursday.
Four months after GST rollout, the panel will look at the most comprehensive overhaul of rates, easing returns filing and providing more relief to SMEs.
A look at top macro triggers that may move market on Tuesday.
The GST puzzle is so complex it feels like a cruel and nerdy prank played by taxmen on India’s entrepreneurs.
Tax experts point out that most companies are looking to merge KKC with other credits, and this may not go down well with the taxman.
"Right now, we have not put them under the head of GST because till the law is passed, we cannot account under GST," Revenue Secretary Hasmukh Adhia said.
A look at top macro triggers that may move market on Monday.
“We will be busy in the process of shifting a large number of items from 28% to the lower rate,” said Jaitley, a move to rationalise GST
The Survey said, "A GST with broad coverage to include activities that are sources of black money creation -- land and other immovable property -- should be implemented."
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