Rains to help cotton sowing in Karnataka
Showers in Karnataka would support cotton sowing while land preparation in Haryana would go well under mostly dry weather.
Negat-ives like westerly wind flow in upper troposphere (repelling easte-rly at higher levels which support the monsoon trade winds) and heavy winter/spring snow are li-kely to be outweighed by neutral ENSO conditions, making 2011’s monsoon normal, experts say. An upward revision in monsoon outlook by IMD may come by the end of the month riding on the ENSO neutral forecast by NCEP. Notably, there is a 20% chance of a below-normal monsoon under neutral ENSO conditions.
Bay of Bengal has been devoid of cyclogenesis (formation of cyclonic circulations) for the past couple of weeks and easterly/northeasterly monsoon trade winds are yet to appear over Andamans, causing some worry. The islands usually expect monsoon by May 20 while importantly there is no association of onset over the subcontinent with the islands. Rainfall in Kerala and Karnataka would pick up, supported by a north-south trough along the west coast. Rains here are imperative as they would set the tone for monsoon onset over the sub-continent.
The trough runs from Gujarat to Kerala. Rains would subside in intensity and spread later in the week as the causative trough gets disbanded. Troughs are elongated regions where opposing winds meet. Moisture carried by them and turbulence caused by mixing lead to inclement weather. Light rainfall is also likely along the west coast due to the trough. Coastal and interior Maharashtra and coastal Gujarat would witness scattered showers that would die down by the middle of week as the trough dwindles.
Up north, a fresh western disturbance is likely to appear by May 19 while moisture remnants of the last one interacting with a heat low over eastern Pakistan would sustain isolated dust/thunder storms in northwest on Tuesday. Western disturbances are moisture bearing clouds forming over Mediterranean or Caspian Seas due to evaporation and travelling east.
Northeast will get widespread showers throughout the week due an unrelenting low. Another east-west trough passing over Indo-Gangetic plains from Punjab to Bengal would foster light scattered rainfall in east. Rainy east and drier Andhra Pradesh would help paddy in these regions during seed development and maturity respectively. Showers in Karnataka would support cotton sowing while land preparation in Haryana would go well under mostly dry weather. Harvesting of a bumper wheat crop is almost complete despite weather setbacks in the northwest.
(Jatin Singh, CEO, Skymet)