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Multibagger hunt! We’ve done the dirty work, you can pick & choose

It is difficult to call the market bottom, says Saurabh Mukherjea.

, ETMarkets.com|
Updated: Sep 13, 2019, 02.22 PM IST
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Outlook 1 - getty
Investors are already busy mining value bets and BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices have started showing early signs of brisk buying.
Nobody, trust us, nobody has ever got it right while trying to tell a market bottom. The textbook trick is: start buying when the last bull has turned a bear!

Dalal Street’s biggest bull, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, has already turned bullish. “Indicators are suggesting that stocks have bottomed out, particularly midcaps, and this is a good time to invest,” he told a TV channel on Thursday.

Meanwhile, adverse macro-economic factors that were causing all the trouble in the market have started improving: the US and China are making goodwill gestures, no-deal Brexit is off the table, ECB going in for fresh bond buying, and back home the government is getting serious about hand-holding the distressed sectors of the economy. IIP print for July did show a turnaround, though economists were cautious with that number.

Domestic stock investors surely have a huge opportunity here; the challenge is in one’s ability to spot the right stock. Stocks have been beaten down across sectors and many of them today trade really cheap by any valuation matrix.

Investors are already busy mining value bets and BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices have started showing early signs of brisk buying, having managed to outpace the benchmark Sensex in four out of past five sessions (till September 12).

“It is difficult to call the market bottom,” says Saurabh Mukherjea, Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Marcellus Investment. “But it is looking like a good time to go bargain hunting, even though there is some degree of risk out there. One should always realise that bargains are only available when there is a degree of risk. It does feel a little difficult from an economic perspective, but you should go bargain hunting when you still feel a little risk in the air,” he said.

At ETMarkets, when we applied some filters, we found around 350 stocks that have fallen 10-97 per cent from their respective all-time highs scaled in last three years.

This list includes only liquid companies that reported profits in last five financial years.

And then, we applied a few more filters on them. Check out what we found:-

1) Stocks that have slipped 10-20%
The list threw up 48 stocks that are down up to 20 per cent from their all-time highs. The list even included some of the largecaps such as HDFC Bank, Power Grid, ICICI Bank, HDFC, Reliance Industries, Tech Mahindra and Bajaj Finserv.

Table 1 A

Table 1 B

2) Stocks down 20-40%
Most stocks on this list are midcaps or smallcaps and several auto majors that have taken a big knock after the severe slowdown. So the list included Maruti Suzuki, Hero MotoCorp, The Federal Bank, Tata Chemicals, Chambal Fertilisers and Cholamandalam Finance.

Table 2 A

Table 2 B

Table  C

3) Stocks down 40-60%
This list, too, includes select auto and auto ancillaries, besides media and NBFC companies. Among them are M&M, Balmer Lawrie, TV Today, LIC Housing Finance and TVS Motor, which have eroded nearly 50 per cent of investor wealth from their all-time high levels.

Table 3 A

Table 3 (b)

Table 3 (C)

Table 3 (D)

4) Stocks down 60-80%
Avanti Feeds, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, Phillips Carbon Black, Indiabulls Housing Finance, NBCC and JBM Auto are some of the names on this list

Table 4 (a)

Table 4 (B)

Table 4 (C)

5) Stock down more than 80%
The list topper here is, of course, YES Bank, which faces corporate governance issues. Others included Geojit Financial Services, PC Jeweller, Vakrangee, Kushal and Excel Realty, which have wiped out up to 97 per cent of investor wealth.

Table 5

6) Stocks below industry PE averages
We further shortened the list to look for stocks trading a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios that are below their respective industry averages. It threw up nearly 230 names, which included Apollo Tyres, Bajaj Consumer, Deepak Fertilisers, Eveready Industries, M&M and YES Bank, among others.

PE 1

PE 2

7) Stocks trading below book value
This screener threw up some 60 names. The list included YES Bank, Indian Bank, GSCL, Gujarat State Fertilisers, Arvind, Welspun Enterprises and JK Tyre, among others.

SNIPP

8) Stocks with YoY profit & sales growth
When the list was further filtered for companies that reported a rise in profit and sales on a year-on-year basis for last four quarters, it yielded just seven stocks: Welspun Enterprises, Goodluck India, REC, GHCL, Globus Spirits, Himatsingka Seida and Sukhjit Starch & Chemicals.
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