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    Nifty, Sensex at record highs; but average portfolios deep in the red

    Synopsis

    The high-flying performance has failed to lift average stock portfolios out of the slump.

    Sensex, Nifty hit all time highs; 5 factors that drove the rally

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    Record highs of Sensex and Nifty usually trigger cracker bursts and cake cutting in Indian financial markets. But there were very few happy faces and even fewer cheers when the indices scaled new lifetime records on Monday and Tuesday.

    Very few investors selectively poured money in the top 15-20 largecaps over the past few months, as selling in broader markets dented portfolios amid an economic slowdown. As a result, the high-flying performance has failed to lift average stock portfolios out of the slump.

    Sensex advanced 21 per cent between January 1, 2018 and November 25, 2019, while the Midcap and Smallcap indices declined 16 per cent and 30 per cent, respectively. Nifty gained 16 per cent, while Nifty Next50 retreated 8 per cent.

    Sebi reclassification of mutual funds, credit crisis in NBFCs, macro data and global trade tensions mainly drove market sentiment in last 23 months. The 30-share Sensex scaled a fresh record high of 41,120 in early trade on November 26, while the 50-share Nifty topped a new high of 12,132.

    So, despite the record high levels of the indices, 86 per cent of stocks on BSE are still trading in the red compared with January 2018 levels. As much as 75 per cent of BSE500 stocks are down in the dumps, with some of the falling up to 90 per cent.

    “Investors are likely to reallocate capital back to the stock market if global growth revives. Companies have started enquiring about fresh loans and there are initial signs of the economy starting to recover. October and November were better than August. Real recovery may start from January, 2020,” said Dhiraj Relli, MD & CEO, HDFC Securities.

    He said most of the drivers of the current slowdown appear to be temporary and related to channel financing/GST credit issues. Companies that are able to gain market share from competitors have been less impacted by the slowdown.

    With a 221 per cent gain since January last year, Procter and Gamble stood as top gainer in the BSE500 index. Other high-fliers included Bajaj Finance (up 140 per cent), Astrazeneca Pharma (up 132 per cent), Abbott India (up 130 per cent) and NIIT Technologies (up 130 per cent) and Bata India (up 118 per cent).

    On the other hand, Reliance Communications, Reliance Capital, DHFL, Reliance Infra, Reliance Power, PC Jeweller, Jaiprakash Associates, Srei Infra and Jain Irrigation have declined over 90 per cent during the same period.

    Chartist Rajesh Palviya of Axis Securities suggested following a ‘buy on dips’ strategy in this market. “Daily strength indicator RSI is moving upwards and above its reference line, indicating a positive bias. That said, momentum oscillator Stochastic still remains bearish, indicating a possible consolidation,” he said.

    (Comment below and let us know how you managed to cope up with ongoing fall in the broader market. Is your portfolio in the green?)
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    2 Comments on this Story

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