The Economic Times
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| 19 January, 2021, 05:57 PM IST | E-Paper

    Next 10 years make-or-break decade for Indian economy: Economists

    If everything goes according to plan, India will be able to reap the fruits of its favourable demography over 2030s and 2040s, before she loses that edge in the 2050s, according to economists.

    Global economy can shake off pandemic in 2021, leaders say

    World Bank Chief Economist Carmen Reinhart said increasing debt distress in many of those countries meant that China, now the world's largest official creditor, would need to start restructuring the debt it is owed.

    Ten ways coronavirus has changed the world economy

    Here is an overview of some of the transformations.

    Parliamentary panel on finance will examine Covid long term impact on economy

    Government experts maintain that the Indian economy will come back to pre-Covid levels by the next financial year (2021-22) as it is recovering faster than expected. The committee, headed by former minister and BJP MP Jayant Sinha, has decided to prioritise the long-term impact of Covid-19 on the global economy.

    Ten ways Covid-19 has changed the world economy forever

    Measured by output, the world economy is well on the way to recovery from a slump the likes of which barely any of its 7.7 billion people have seen in their lifetimes. Vaccines should accelerate the rebound in 2021. But other legacies of Covid-19 will shape global growth for years to come.

    Coronavirus spurred changes to global workforce to be permanent

    ILO has estimated that the impact of huge job losses worldwide is creating a fiscal gap that threatens to increase inequality between richer and poorer countries. It estimated that global labour income declined by 10.7 per cent, or $3.5 trillion, in the first three quarters of 2020, compared with the same period in 2019, excluding government income support.

    China's economy grows 2.3 per cent in 2020 as rebound from coronavirus gains

    That was China's weakest growth in decades but ahead of the United States and other major economies. They have yet to report 2020 growth but all are on track to show full-year activity contracting before vaccines are rolled out and commerce returns to normal.

    China stocks retreat on coronavirus worries

    The blue-chip CSI300 index fell 1.5% to 5,437.52, while the Shanghai Composite Index slipped 0.8% to 3,566.38.

    India took 'very decisive' steps to deal with coronavirus pandemic and its economic consequences: IMF chief

    The IMF Managing Director during a global media roundtable on Thursday predicted a less bad outlook for India in the upcoming World Economic Update due to the steps taken by it.

    OECD sees global economy turning the corner on coronavirus crisis

    The global economy will grow 4.2% next year and ease to 3.7% in 2022, after shrinking 4.2% this year, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said in its latest Economic Outlook.

    One vaccine side effect: Global economic inequality

    Wealthy nations in Europe and North America have secured the bulk of limited stocks of vaccines, positioning themselves for starkly improved economic fortunes. Developing countries — home to most of humanity — are left to secure their own doses.

    Global COVID-19 cases breach 67.5-million mark

    As per the COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at JHU, the global tally stood at 67,535,605 as of 6.56 am (IST) Tuesday.

    Pharmaceutical major Pfizer reassures Europe over coronavirus vaccines as pandemic surges

    The coronavirus pandemic is showing no signs of slowing down, with infections surging past 94 million and more than two million deaths, and Europe among the hardest-hit parts of the world.

    Global demand to accelerate by April 2021 due to Covid vaccine rollout: Morgan Stanley report

    Many individuals have been holding back on their spending till clarity emerges before they make a purchase. Many global investors have been raising caution over the global economies. Although the stock markets across the world have seen a spurt in the last few months as large investors moved away from safe bets such as the US dollar and gold.

    COVID-19 pandemic's long-term impact could lead to more new HIV infections, AIDS-related deaths: UN

    The UNAIDS is calling on countries to make far greater investments in global pandemic responses and adopt a new set of bold, ambitious but achievable HIV targets. If those targets are met, the world will be back on track to ending AIDS as a public health threat by 2030.

    2020 Year in Review | Covid-19 split startup world into haves, have-nots

    Who gained, who lost? ETtech takes stock of the changing startup fortunes in a pandemic-marred year.

    US must 'act big' on next coronavirus relief package: Janet Yellen

    The proposed aid package includes $415 billion to bolster the U.S. response to the virus and the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines, some $1 trillion in direct relief to households.

    A year after Covid began, China’s economy is beating world

    After withstanding President Donald Trump’s trade war, China is deepening economic ties within Asia and Europe and looking to domestic consumption to power its next phase of growth.

    What will be tax impact on NRIs stranded in India due to novel coronavirus pandemic

    An NRI stranded in India due to coronavirus travel restrictions would require to check the conditions to decide whether there could be additional tax implications on him due to remotely working from India for his/her foreign employer.

    Covid-19 vaccine: World rolls up sleeves to take a shot

    Russia started vaccination of front-line workers and other high-risk people in Moscow on Saturday while China too has reportedly geared up for rollout of its domestically made Covid vaccine.

    Dubai economy to grow 4% in 2021, rebounding from this year's contraction

    Dubai Statistic Centre said the economy declined by 10.8% in the first six months of 2020, which the centre's executive director, Arif Al Muhairi, said was within the expected range of economic contraction, given the massive global economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Despite improved growth outlook, surge in infections presents risks for Indian economy

    According to a report by Reuters, India's economy is likely to have shown signs of a pick-up in the quarter to September after a record contraction the previous quarter, and is expected to recover early next year on hopes of better consumer demand fed by progress on coronavirus vaccines.

    Oil prices fall amid worries over new coronavirus strain

    Brent crude dropped 97 cents, or 1.9 per cent, to $51.29 a barrel by 0103 GMT after rising 1.5 per cent and touching its highest since March last Friday.

    Covid-induced contraction in creative economy, income loss: Report

    Signalling that during the pandemic, the creative industries continue to face a very uncertain future, the report shows that the creative economy is contracting, organisations are closing permanently to avoid bankruptcy, and creative businesses are contending with increasingly difficult choices to cut staff and overheads to ensure they remain resilient.

    UK scientists worried vaccines may not work on South African coronavirus variant

    Scientists including BioNTech CEO Ugur Sahin and John Bell, Regius Professor of Medicine at the University of Oxford, have said they are testing the vaccines on the new variants and say they could make any required tweaks in around six weeks.

    IMF chief sees 'high degree of uncertainty' in global outlook

    IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said a new allocation of the IMF's own currency, Special Drawing Rights, would help give countries more fiscal space to tackle the health crisis and shift to a digital and green economy.

    Take a last glimpse at a nightmare year for the world economy

    What began as a year clouded by the milder threats of a fractious U.S. presidential election, ongoing trade tensions with China, and a hard deadline for U.K. relations with the European Union soon became an existential ordeal to salvage any economic growth at all amid unprecedented lockdowns.

    Vaccine breakthrough from Moderna lifts global hopes against coronavirus pandemic

    The news from the US biotech firm Moderna comes after similar results were announced last week for a vaccine candidate developed by pharma giant Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech.

    Virus impact keeps eurozone inflation negative

    The Eurostat figures for December gave the 19-nation zone an inflation reading of minus 0.3 percent, the same level as in November. It has been negative since August.

    A Cambridge economist decodes how Covid exposed global economy's frailties

    "When I looked at China I was a bit surprised. A lot of people said in April that a lot of economies would have a V shaped recovery. Our results show an inverse square root recovery, like a U shaped recovery. China is extremely important to other emergent Asian economies. Why is China different? There are three elements to it."

    Slowdown in G20 trade restriction measures as COVID-19 impacts world economy: WTO report

    The WTO's latest Trade Monitoring Report on G20 trade measures also said that although world trade had already been slowing before the pandemic, merchandise exports in nominal US dollar terms fell 21 per cent in the second quarter of 2020 compared to the previous year.

    Indian economy is picking up pace, but there are two big roadblocks

    A few macroeconomic and industry variables have begun to show noticeable growth, suggesting a rebound in the Indian economy. Power consumption has risen steadily and saw an increase of 13.5% YoY on Oct 6. Similarly, there is an increase in petrol, diesel consumption; UPI, IMPS transactions were at a record high in Sept; E-way bill volume rose 9.6% YoY to 57.4 m in Sept; Electronic toll volume at 110.08 m in Sept. Average daily property registration in Maharashtra also jumped to 3,936 in Sept, the highest since May 2019.

    How British scientists found the more infectious coronavirus variant

    For Britain, the discovery came too late to prevent a punishing new wave of COVID-19 that has put its hospitals on the brink of having to deny lifesaving care. The variant was already spreading fast, abetted by the government’s lax restrictions during the fall and early winter.

    One year, 400,000 coronavirus deaths: How the U.S. guaranteed its own failure

    For nearly the entire pandemic, political polarization and a rejection of science have stymied the United States’ ability to control the coronavirus. That has been clearest and most damaging at the federal level, where Trump claimed that the virus would “disappear".

    Dollar steadies amid rising global coronavirus cases

    Global markets surged last week after on vaccine optimism, with the dollar rising as traders quit their long-yen positions. But the currency market had turned risk averse towards the end of the week as global infections spread.

    Fed officials differ over economy's risks as coronavirus surges

    Daily new infections in the United States surpassed 163,000 on Thursday, crossing the 100,000 mark for a ninth consecutive day, and the death toll rose by 1,173 to a total of 242,982. Hospitals in some states are reaching capacity.

    IMF warns global economy could be permanently scarred

    The policy-setting panel of the 189-nation International Monetary Fund concluded a virtual meeting Thursday with a joint statement that warned of permanent damage from the worst global downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s unless countries are given further economic support.

    Virus success helps Taiwan buck global downturn with enviable growth

    Throughout much of the year, shoppers have thronged stores, restaurants have stayed busy, tourist attractions have remained open and factories have kept humming.

    Coronavirus dominates global sovereigns 2021 outlook: Fitch Ratings

    With vaccine rollouts now looking imminent, the agency assumes global economic recovery will take a firmer hold by mid-year, even though the economic and fiscal implications of the virus are likely to linger.

    Coronavirus crisis will not be the last pandemic: WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus

    Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus also condemned the "dangerously short-sighted" cycle of throwing cash at outbreaks but doing nothing to prepare for the next one, in a video message marking Sunday's first International Day of Epidemic Preparedness.

    ECB's De Cos says it will take time before COVID vaccine has positive impact on economy

    De Cos said new restrictions imposed in euro zone countries to curb the second wave of the pandemic meant that the ECB's upcoming macroeconomic projections in December would be most likely revised downwards.

    Saudi non-oil private sector keeps growing as COVID-19 impact eases: PMI

    The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Saudi Arabia Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 54.7 in November from 51.0 in October. The 50.0 mark separates growth from contraction.

    World GDP recovery to strengthen from mid-2021 on vaccine rollout, India's GDP to shrink -9.4% in FY21: Fitch

    Fitch now expects world GDP to fall by 3.7% in 2020 compared to 4.4% in its September estimate. This is despite the expectation of renewed falls in GDP in the fourth quarter in the eurozone and the UK, following the recent tightening of restrictions.

    Coronavirus accelerating digital transformation: SCO Secretary-General

    Norov was speaking at the inaugural plenary of four-day 23rd Sustainable Development Conference (SDC) titled: Sustainable Development in the Times of COVID-19, inaugurated by the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI) in Islamabad on Monday.

    Oil falls on coronavirus surge but on track for weekly gain

    Brent crude was down 36 cents, or 0.83%, at $43.17 a barrel as of 1143 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 48 cents, or 1.17%, to $40.64 a barrel.

    Tighter environment standards to impact coal consumption across Asia: Moody’s

    We expect governments across Asia to tighten environmental standards, to meet their commitments to curb carbon emissions and to improve air quality, through review of those policies and measures, Moody’s said in a report.

    How people are coping with the global impact of COVID-19 on workplaces and societies

    A woman sits outside Cafe Du Soleil under bubble tents following the outbreak of the coronavirus disease in the Manhattan borough of New York City, US

    ET Back to Business Summary - Increased role and impact of automation in manufacturing

    Automation is also helping the manufacturing industry evolve its definition of productivity. The measure of productivity is no longer defined by physical movement of goods.

    Global coronavirus death toll passes 1 million

    By 1600 GMT Monday, the disease had claimed 1,002,432 victims from 33,178,275 recorded infections, according to an AFP tally collected from official sources by journalists stationed around the world, and compiled by a dedicated team of data specialists.

    UAE central bank extends stimulus scheme to stem COVID-19 impact

    The UAE economy is expected to shrink by 6.6% this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has estimated, as vital sectors such as transportation and tourism have been badly hit by the coronavirus.

    Saudi Arabia's economy shrinks 4.6% in Q3 as oil sector takes a hit

    Saudi Arabia is facing its worst economic decline in decades after the COVID-19 pandemic curbed global crude demand and measures to contain it also hurt other sectors. The world's largest oil exporter said on Tuesday it expects the economy to shrink by 3.7% this year but to swing back to growth of 3.2% next year.

    Economy likely to maintain V-shaped recovery: Finance Ministry

    ​​The impending vaccination against the coronavirus would spur momentum in economic activity globally, the finance ministry said.

    LIC MD on how India can fight against the impact of Covid on economy

    "When you are looking at the manufacturing sector and the industrial sector, the growth essentially comes from an uptick in the spending, which is not happening," LIC Managing Director Vipin Anand says.

    Most major economies are shrinking. Not China’s.

    Keeping the virus at bay has been critical to China’s economic success over the past year. While the pandemic ravages other nations, Beijing’s aggressive top-down approach kept the virus from spreading rapidly across the country.

    Greek economy may contract 11% percent in 2020, central bank says

    The government now expects a contraction in output of around 10.5%, according to the latest 2020 projections in the 2021 government budget now pending approval in the country's parliament.

    Now that coronavirus vaccines are coming, what about poor countries?

    This being a pandemic (from the Greek word for “all people”), that welcome development presents all the usual problems of global differences in wealth, power and equity. Rich countries have already placed their orders. Poor countries can only hope not to be left out. What should be done?

    India has enough capacity to produce COVID-19 vaccines for itself and others

    FM Sitharaman asserted that India has to invest a lot more in health infrastructure and get more private partners into the sector.

    A pandemic atlas: How COVID-19 took over the world in 2020

    More than any event in memory, the pandemic has been a global event. On every continent, households have felt its devastation, joblessness and lockdowns, infirmity and death.

    China clamps down in hidden hunt for coronavirus origins, promoting theories that Covid originated elsewhere

    The government is monitoring scientists' findings and mandating that the publication of any research first be approved by a new task force managed by China's cabinet under direct orders from President Xi Jinping, according to internal documents obtained by The AP. A rare leak from within the government, the dozens of pages of unpublished documents confirm what many have long suspected: The clampdown comes from the top.

    Oil falls on coronavirus fears, strong dollar

    Brent crude was down 16 cents, or 0.3%, at $54.94 per barrel at 1445 GMT, and West Texas Intermediate U.S. crude fell 10 cents, or 0.2%, to $52.26.

    Taxed by the pandemic, Centre may go for a coronavirus cess in Budget 2021

    The industry has asked that no new taxes be levied as the economy is under stress in its budget recommendations. Experts also opposed the idea, saying the timing wasn’t right.

    Global economic fallout of COVID-19 will continue to remain a challenge: Harsh Vardhan Shringla

    The comments came in the backdrop of China's growing expansionist behaviour in eastern Ladakh, South China Sea and Indo-Pacific region. Shringla said India has developed a unique way of sharing its developmental experiences with its partners that has projected the country's strategic intentions to be a "force for good" in multiple geographies across the globe.

    No vaccine, no entry! Is it possible for offices to allow only vaccinated employees resume work?

    Mandating vaccines would be especially important to help protect workers in minority.

    CitiusTech expects Covid-19 impact to boost business in FY22

    CitiusTech expects to grow at more than 20%, in line with its ambition to cross $500 million in revenue over the next 4-5 years, CEO Rizwan Koita says.

    PM Modi holds virtual summit with Italian counterpart; discusses ways to deal with adverse impact of COVID-19

    In his opening remarks at the virtual bilateral summit with the Italian leader, Modi said it is clear that the COVID-19 epidemic will remain a watershed in history just like the Second World War.

    Which developing economies will rise after the pandemic?

    The pandemic is accelerating the adoption of digital technology, which has a particularly strong effect on immature economies. Digital technology is unlikely to generate double-digit growth because its impact is largely limited to domestic economies, with no added boost from exports. But it can simultaneously and sustainably transform domestic emerging economies.

    Global dividends forecast to inch back from coronavirus cliff edge

    Dividends are a major source of income for both public and private pension funds, but companies trying to cope with the coronavirus cut them by $55 billion, or 11.4%, in the third quarter after a $108 billion 22% plunge between April and June when uncertainty over the course of the pandemic peaked.

    Boris Johnson expected to order lockdown for England as COVID-19 cases top 1 million

    The United Kingdom, which has the biggest official death toll in Europe from COVID-19, is grappling with more than 20,000 new coronavirus cases a day and scientists have warned the "worst case" scenario of 80,000 dead could be exceeded.

    UK economy shrank in November as new lockdown hit

    Britain's economy shrank by 2.6% in November, the first monthly fall in output since the country was under its initial COVID lockdown last April as new restrictions were imposed to slow the spread of the disease.

    Gold funds offer -2.52% returns in 3 months. Is the rally over?

    Gold prices in India fell amid weak global cues today to a one-month low. Falling for three consecutive days, gold futures on MCX fell 0.14% to over one month low of Rs 48,636 per 10 gram.

    Global COVID-19 infections may be six times higher than reported: Study

    The data, published in the journal Royal Society Open Science, shows COVID-19 infection rates in the UK, France, Belgium and Italy are much higher than reported and in the case of Italy up to 17-times higher.

    India's 10 million coronavirus cases explained in 10 charts

    On Saturday, the coronavirus cases in the country surpassed the 10 million mark with 25,152 new infections. However, the virus in the country, which peaked in September, seems to be abating. The imminent arrival of the Covid-19 vaccine has also infused fresh hopes that the pandemic which has claimed 145k lives across the world is on its way out.

    First dynamic Covid surveillance system rolls out in 195 nations

    "Now we can easily identify outbreaks at their beginning," said Lori Post from Northwestern University's Feinberg School of Medicine. "You want to know where the pandemic is accelerating, how fast it is moving and how that compares to prior weeks."

    Coronavirus: Rich nations snap up vaccine stocks in global race for jab

    Big pharma is racing to produce an effective jab to counter a virus that has now killed more than 935,000 people around the world and infected almost 30 million.

    WHO team arrives in Wuhan to search for the origins of the coronavirus pandemic

    The 10-member team sent to Wuhan by the World Health Organization was approved by President Xi Jinping's government after months of diplomatic wrangling that prompted an unusual public complaint by the head of the WHO.

    Oil set for 20% drop in 2020 as lockdowns weigh

    On Thursday, the last trading day of 2020, Brent was trading down 18 cents, or 0.4%, at $51.45 a barrel, as of 0136 GMT and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) lost 0.1%, or 5 cents, to $48.35 a barrel.

    Navigating 2021 with ET: Trends that will help you navigate a risky and uncertain world

    A number of themes will shape the course of the Indian economy through 2021 and beyond. These themes — investing, the future of work, the acceleration of digitisation, and the impact of the pandemic on contact-intensive.

    Indian-American business owners call for revitalisation policy after impacted by pandemic

    Noting that the pandemic has bought them on the verge of bankruptcy, the small business owners rued that the steps being taken by the current administration has not been able to rescue them from this crisis.

    Factory floors keep global economy chugging along amid virus hit

    The electronics industry is enjoying particularly strong demand, helping to propel North Asia’s factories. South Korea’s semiconductors shipments surged 16% in November.

    Rolling-out of COVID-19 vaccination will start soon: Union Health Minister Harsh Vardhan

    Vardhan said the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines will start "very soon". "India has finally received emergency approval from the apex regulator for two vaccines and we will be rolling out vaccination drives very soon," he said.

    India in advantageous position with huge skilled workforce for post COVID-19 world

    The PM said the nation was marching ahead with its resolute resolve to build a strong and self-resilient India that encapsulates the vision of world welfare and full integration.

    The global hunt for Covid-19 vaccine for kids begins; next up, testing shots in children

    When the first shots arrive, they're unlikely to be recommended for children.

    Bill Gates, the coronavirus and the quest to vaccinate the world

    If the initiative, aided by Gates’ fortune and focus, manages to help protect the world’s poor from a virus that has already killed more than 1.3 million people, it will affirm the strategies he has promoted in his philanthropic work, including incentives for drug companies.

    Members of oil cartel to meet as coronavirus rattles demand

    The group has to reach agreement among its member countries and the additional members in the group known as OPEC Plus, which is led by Russia. Members of the OPEC Plus group will meet Tuesday.

    Saudi central bank governor says measures to stem COVID-19 impact could be extended: Al Arabiya

    Speaking to state-owned Al Arabiya, Ahmed al-Kholifey also said there was no plan to introduce new liquidity measures.

    Australia bounces out of coronavirus-induced recession, economy grows 3.3 percent

    Despite the latest quarterly rise, the economy contracted at a 3.8% annual pace. That's after GDP fell by 0.3% in the first quarter and then by a record 7% in the second quarter.

    Goldilocks in Covid pandemic, things still under control: Morgan Stanley

    Goldilocks economy is often the one where the growth is high but the inflation is under control. That is the economy is in equilibrium or the best state possible: with good employment figures, economic stability and higher than world average growth.

    China's economy grows 4.9% in Q3, extending coronavirus recovery

    China's recovery has so far put it on track to be the only major economy expanding this year, according to International Monetary Fund forecasts, while nations around the world continue to struggle with lockdowns and new waves of infections.

    Why the Biden economy could be the same slog as the Obama economy

    There are ways the Biden economy might escape the slow-growth economic outlook, if the Senate goes along with enough coronavirus rescue funds to prevent widespread business failures and sharp pullbacks by state and local governments.

    PM Modi to address Bloomberg New Economy Forum

    The forum will witness discussions centered on refuelling the economy and charting a course for the future as the global economy grapples with the COVID-19 pandemic, the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) said.

    'Vaccinationalism' is self-defeating, says UN chief as global COVID deaths cross 2 million

    Since its discovery at the end of December 2019, COVID-19 has now spread to all corners of the world, with cases in 191 countries and regions. Deaths due to the disease reached the grim milestone of one million only in September. In addition, the socio-economic impact of the pandemic has been massive.

    Coronavirus vaccine development is on track. The next challenge? Tackling the side effects

    The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention plans to send daily texts to those who are vaccinated for the first week and then weekly texts for six weeks, while the Food and Drug Administration will also be monitoring side effects in real time.

    India’s economy seen clawing back after slipping into recession

    A slew of indicators from car sales to services sector activity notched higher last month, while alternative data signal robust demand in an economy that’s primarily driven by domestic consumption.

    G20 says it will strive for fair global access to COVID-19 vaccine

    The coronavirus pandemic and prospects of an uneven and uncertain economic recovery have been at the centre of a two-day summit under the chairmanship of Saudi Arabia, which will hand the G20 presidency to Italy next month.

    A year after first death in China, coronavirus source still a puzzle

    Nearly two million deaths later, the pandemic is out of control across much of the world, leaving tens of millions ill, a pulverised global economy and recriminations flying between nations.

    India's economy showing signs of improvement, braving the impact of the COVID-19: Assocham

    "Be it India's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI - Manufacturing) or PMI for Services, robust recovery is visible. The PMI for Manufacturing expanded to 56.8 in September 2020, the highest since January 2012. The PMI for Services expanded for the fifth straight month in September to 49.8 from 41.8 in August," AASE noted.

    Put livelihoods above lives; V-shaped recovery on: Jim O’Neill

    Most major economies opted for a strict shutdown earlier this year, in an attempt to limit the spread of the new coronavirus pandemic. These decisions had serious economic implications, and hurt businesses across the spectrum.

    COVID-19: India says meeting Nepal's vaccine requirement would be priority

    ​​Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla, addressing a lecture hosted by the Asian Institute of Diplomacy and International Affairs (AIDIA), a Kathmandu-based non-partisan foreign policy think-tank, said that India is "on the cusp of the availability of a vaccine for the novel coronavirus".

    IMF urges countries to continue strong fiscal, monetary support

    In October, the Fund forecast a 4.4% global GDP contraction for 2020, followed by a rebound to growth of 5.2% for 2021.

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