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    Another round of stimulus for the Indian economy: What are the next steps?

    Synopsis

    Top finance ministry officials have said another round of stimulus is possible, without elaborating on the size, timing or other details.

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    Top finance ministry officials have said another round of stimulus is possible, without elaborating on the size, timing or other details. ET asked economists what they’d look for in such an effort and how it can be funded. Gaurav Noronha & Kirtika Suneja look at the suggestions:

    The economy is picking up, why is another stimulus needed

    • Recent recovery is bounceback from lockdown combined with festival spending
    • The first stimulus round has come to an end
    • Business confidence is still shaky
    • Recent moves on LTC, bonus insufficient to create demand
    • Demand may peter out after festival season ends
    • Despite pickup, economy to see deep contraction

    GDP forecast for FY21, in %

    1

    What could the next stimulus entail?

    • Extend free ration scheme till March
    • Some support for the urban poor
    • Income tax benefits for spending to ensure durability of demand
    • Lower GST on mobile phones, cement, vehicles & parts
    • Clear stuck payments to govt contractors, increase capex
    • Capital allocation to infrastructure projects already in the works to ramp up execution/spending
    • Non-refundable consumption vouchers with a short validity period

    What may be holding back the government?

    • Fiscal constraints, lack of resources
    • Conserving resources should Covid-19 see a second wave
    • High level of debt
    • Possible rating downgrade if more debt is raised to fund stimulus

    Fiscal deficit

    2

    What about fiscal worries?

    • Not the time to worry about deficit
    • Fiscal expansion needed in times of downturn
    • Need to break cycle of weak consumer-business sentiment
    • Fiscal situation will look better once growth picks up
    • Rating agencies keener on revival plan than fiscal prudence

    How can the Centre fund the stimulus?

    • Centre can use Ways and Means Advances to borrow
    • Pledge listed PSU shares with RBI in exchange for loans
    • Speed up strategic sales
    • Deficit monetisation should be on the table, but kept as a last option


    "When the economy is contracting, a fiscal stimulus is required to revive it as it then sets off a cycle of higher growth and better tax collection."

    — ABHEEK BARUA CHIEF ECONOMIST, HDFC BANK



    "Deficit monetisation is an extreme step, it can be considered but there are many options available before that."

    — AJIT RANADE CHIEF ECONOMIST, ADITYA BIRLA GROUP


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    14 Comments on this Story

    Satish Kansal23 hours ago
    Fast track stoppage of Income Tax leakages and fasten refunds.
    Solomon Selvaraj1 day ago
    Just try to increase the Indian economy by simple rule don't pay salaryfor all Minister's, President, Prime minister, Chief minister till this Corona all are came to do service only means ask all Minister's to sacrifice their salaries for One year instead of putting pressure on people's if they're really came to do service
    Solomon Selvaraj1 day ago
    Very simple steps to increase the Indian money value in world try to give the money back to people to spend in this festival time many are suffering still not yet recovered and came up from this Corona try to pay for all by using Aadhar. Government having all details of all of by Aadhar why can't they pay like subsidy and makes us come up from this situation? Small clarification to Government if people's are ther only they can put tax and they can't put for the dead one try to think smart and do the move without people's no need of CM, PM and all minister's
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