The government did not provide a number for the change in output from May 2020 but said the number of units responding has improved as compared to the earlier months of lockdown. The Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation also revised the contraction in April from 55.5% earlier.
India's economy may contract by 3 to 5 per cent in FY'21, which may trigger a 50 to 150 bps points reduction in benchmark repo rate by the central bank during the year.
BofA Securities also said the RBI will monetise the fiscal deficit through purchase of government bonds of up to USD 95 billion through open market operations, and its revaluation reserves of USD 127 billion may also be used to recapitalise state-run banks.
The July 3-8 poll median of over 35 economists showed India's retail inflation in June moderated to 5.30% from March's revised 5.84%, still breaching the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target of 4.00%.
Mukesh Ambani’s ambitious courtship of international investors has helped India turn the tide.
EY's current assessment of India's 2020-21 real gross value added (GVA) growth is 1.9 per cent provided that India sticks to its infrastructure funding plans.
The report said any recovery into 2021 (even without a second bout of the pandemic) is going to be curtailed by several factors. Foremost will be the presence of degrees of social distancing (despite the easing of lockdowns) and higher levels of post-lockdown unemployment and poverty.
Collection efficiency for most non-bank lenders, small-finance banks and MFIs has improved in June to 50-60%.
"Our in-house GDP Nowcasting model, which analyses an array of high frequency (monthly) indicators to make a call on the ongoing and coming quarters on a real time basis, confirms the double-digit contraction in 2Q20 (second quarter of 2020), before ascending to a smaller extent in 3Q20 (third quarter of 2020)," DBS said in a report.
The CMIE weekly data shows the unemployment rate rose just 0.1 percentage points in the week ended June 28 to 8.6% and 0.3 percentage points for the week ended July 3 to 8.9%, after it fell sharply from the peak of 23.5% in May 2020 to 11% in June.
“These green shoots have a conducive policy environment to grow further and nudge the economy early on the path of economic recovery and growth,” the ministry said in its macroeconomic report for June. It reiterated the IMF’s forecast in June of a 4.5% contraction for India in FY21.
Citigroup has sharply lowered its forecast for the Indian economy as the pandemic shows no sign of slowing.
India is likely to register its first monthly trade surplus in over 18 years in June.
As per the National Sample Survey Office report on migration in India, almost 55% households in rural areas and 67% in urban areas migrated for employment-related reasons in 2007-08. The survey was conducted between July 2007 and June 2008, and covered a sample of over 572,000 people.
The goods and services tax (GST) collection in Odisha has fallen by 7.86 per cent year- on-year to Rs 2,693.75 crore in June, amid slowdown in the economy due to the coronavirus crisis, an official said on Sunday. The GST revenue was 2,923.47 crore in the year-ago month.
Estimated monthly wage loss caused by job cutbacks in the first two lockdowns alone amount to Rs 33,800 cr.
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