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Economic growth likely between 4.2-4.7 per cent in second quarter, say experts

Here is a compilation of various ratings agencies and financial institutions' predictions for today.

ET Online|
Updated: Nov 29, 2019, 03.13 PM IST
Economic Growth
Second quarter GDP growth number will be released later in the day.
Economic growth is expected to tumble even further below the 5 per cent reported in the first quarter of the current fiscal. Taking into consideration the dismal state of the macroeconomic indicators for the second quarter especially the month of August and September, various ratings agencies and financial institutions have further downgraded the second quarter growth figures ranging from 4.2 per cent to 4.7 per cent. They have also changed the full year estimates.

The numbers will be released later in the day.

Nomura Holdings lowered their growth forecasts for the quarter ended September to 4.2%.

Sonal Varma, chief economist for India and Asia at Nomura said, "High-frequency indicators have plunged and domestic credit conditions remain tight amid weak global demand."

The current fiscal year forecasts by Nomura paints the same picture as it has massively cut its GDP forecast to a low 4.9 per cent for the year from 5.7 per cent earlier, saying the economy is going through a "deeper trough" and even a sub-par recovery is at least a year away.

The country's largest public sector bank, State Bank of India, in its report has forecast only a 4.2 per cent GDP growth in the second quarter.

The bank attributes it to low automobile sales, deceleration in air traffic movements, flattening of core sector growth and declining investment in construction and infrastructure.

The growth forecast for FY20 has now come down to 5 per cent from 6.1 per cent earlier, the report also said.

Capital Economics
Capital Economics Ltd. lowered their growth forecasts for the quarter ended September. “We doubt that these tailwinds will have been enough to offset the weakness elsewhere," said Shilan Shah, senior India economist at Capital Economics in Singapore, who is forecasting a 4.7% expansion. “It is clear that the recovery in growth we have been forecasting has so far proved elusive."

India Ratings
India Ratings and Research on Tuesday, lowered GDP growth forecast for current fiscal for the fourth time. The 4.7 per cent projection for the second quarter of the current fiscal would mark six consecutive quarters of slowing growth, a first since 2012.

"India Ratings and Research has revised its GDP growth forecast for FY20 to 5.6 per cent. This is the fourth revision and has come in after the agency had revised its FY20 GDP growth forecast only a month ago to 6.1 per cent," the rating agency said in a statement.

According to Reuters poll the median of a poll of economists showed annual growth in gross domestic product of 4.7% in the quarter.

If the latest figure for expansion of gross domestic product is 4.7% or less, the quarter will have registered the slowest expansion in 26 quarters, since 4.3% in January-March 2013.

Fitch Ratings slashed India's GDP growth forecast in the current fiscal to 5.5 per cent saying a large credit squeeze emanating from shadow banks has pushed economic growth to a six-year low.

Fitch, which had in June this year put India's GDP growth at 6.6 per cent for the fiscal year that began in April 2019, said the recent government measures to boost the economy, including a cut in corporate tax rates, will gradually nudge growth.

Just like IMF pointing out to the looming NBFC crises as one of the major reasons Fitch said, "the Indian economy is being held back by a large squeeze in credit availability emanating from non-bank financial companies (NBFCs)."

Moody's Investors Service downgraded India's economic growth forecast to 5.6 per cent for 2019, saying government measures do not address the widespread weakness in consumption demand.

"We have revised down our growth forecast for India. We now forecast slower real GDP growth of 5.6 per cent in 2019, from 7.4 per cent in 2018," it said. "India's economic slowdown is lasting longer than previously expected."

Moody's had on October 10 slashed India's economic growth forecast for 2019-20 fiscal to 5.8 per cent from an earlier estimate of 6.2 per cent.

Citing slowdown as the major reason for the slowdown the report said, "India's economic growth has decelerated since mid-2018, with real GDP growth slipping from nearly 8 per cent to 5 per cent in the second quarter of 2019 and joblessness rising. Investment activity was muted well before that, but the economy was buoyed by strong consumption demand. What is troubling about the current slowdown is that consumption demand has cooled notably."

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