Volatility will rule the roost on Dalal Street all through the vote count on Thursday amid the expiry of weekly index option contracts, which will also contribute its share of choppiness.
Historical data suggests the domestic equity market never upsets market participants on election result day; at least that has been the case in last 20 years. BSE Sensex advanced 0.90 per cent on result day in 2014, 2 per cent in 2009 and 0.77 per cent in 2004.
ETMarkets Evening Podcast: How to position yourself on D-Street for election results
FIIs net sell Rs 965.02 crore and DIIs net sell Rs 157.75 crore in equities today, provisional data showed
There has neither been a follow through to the bearish pattern registered on May 21, nor has there been any continuation of euphoria on the upside, suggesting caution on the part of market participants. In case of a market-friendly election outcome, the index may head towards the major resistance zone between 12,000 and 12,100 levels after forming a short-term top around the range. Traders are advised to book profit by making use of this rally. Similarly, a negative outcome shall fill the bullish gap present between 11,591 and 11,426 registered on May 20. “In such a scenario, downside can be much higher with initial targets placed around 11,000 level
- Mazhar Mohammad, Chartviewindia
Nifty formed a Tweezers Bottom candlestick pattern, along with a Bullish Harami, which suggests the bulls are in control of the market. Moreover, the gap between 11,425 and 11,590 levels formed post exit poll results is still intact, which could act as a crucial support in the event of profit booking. A trade below the 11,680 mark being the Tweezers Bottom low can drag the index to 11,590 and 11,425 levels
- Aditya Agarwala, Senior Manager, Technical Analysis at YES Securities
Post the exit polls one can say that the market seems to have priced in a second term for Modi government, however, a lack of majority for the BJP will prove to be a dampener. Hung Parliament remains a near-term threat. Post elections the focus will revert back to the fundamental issues such as earnings growth and increase in capex
- Hemang Jani, Head - Advisory, Sharekhan
Nifty formed a small-body candle followed by a Dark Cloud Cover with higher volatility, which indicated that the bulls have to face a tug-of-war with the bears to decisively surpass its lifetime high and a major hurdle at 11,888 level. Now, it has to hold above 11,666 to extend its move towards 11,888 and then attempt to hit the psychologically important 12,000 mark while major support exists at 11,550 level
The key focus for market participants would be on the election outcome tomorrow. The markets are pricing in a clear victory for the NDA government and hence any disappointment on the result day could lead to correction. Going forward in the medium term, notwithstanding the near term rally, we expect the market to consolidate as focus would shift back to fundamentals (corporate earnings) and global cues which has been volatile due to re-escalation of trade tensions between US – China. Further, movement in crude oil prices and currency will also provide direction to the markets
- Jayant Manglik, President - Retail Distribution, Religare Broking
Volatility index shot to a four-year high just ahead the big event. Valuation is expensive depicting the risk of the market to handle such event risk, long-term investors can stay cautious. While actual outcome being in-line with the exit poll will be a relief in the short-term. Formation of a government with strong mandate will support the undercurrent by foreign inflows
- Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services
We remain structurally positive on the market and expect a positive bias post elections. Any dip or correction is expected to act as a strong buying opportunity. We expect Nifty to test 12,200-12,500 on the higher side, while meaningful support is seen at 11,400. Investors are advised to accumulate while traders can use volatility in their favor and follow a buy on dips strategy
- Sahaj Agrawal, Head of Research, Derivatives, Kotak Securities
CLOSING BELL: Sensex ends 140 pts higher, holds above 39K ahead of poll results; Nifty ends at 11,378; India VIX spikes 7%
India VIX at nearly 4 year high
Volatility index hits 30 for the first time since September 2015 | https://t.co/FVALssi3xS https://t.co/hY6lopkj0W
European shares edged lower on Wednesday as concerns over a protracted US-China trade war again worried investors, while a drop in the pound propped up London's blue-chip index. The pan-European STOXX 600 index was down 0.1 per cent by 0708 GMT with Germany's DAX, traditionally sensitive to trade issues, down 0.2 per cent.
Cipla Q4 net more than doubles to Rs 358 crore
Cipla on Wednesday said its consolidated profit more than doubled to Rs 357.60 crore in March quarter from Rs 153.19 crore in the same quarter last year.
The profit figure was better than Rs 320 crore estimated by analysts in an ET Now poll.
Consolidated sales for the quarter rose 22.17 per cent YoY to Rs 4,271 crore from Rs 3,495.81 crore in the same quarter last year. ET Now poll had pegged sales figure at Rs 3,983 crore.
Listed stocks of leading industrial houses have had mixed success in last five years of Modi government compared with the returns they generated under the UPA-II.
The two five-year periods were differentiated by changes in central bank policies globally, wherein easy money flowed into emerging market equities under UPA-II due to quantitative easing, while the later saw a trend reversal.
JSPL tumbles 12% after weak Q4 results
Price as on 22 May, 2019 12:49 PM, Click on company names for their live prices.
Jet Airways shares jump over 8% on Hinduja stake buy buzz
Shares of grounded Jet Airways advanced over 8 per cent in early trade Wednesday after the diversified Hinduja Group said it is evaluating the opportunity to invest in the airline.
On the BSE, the airline's scrip rose 8.59 per cent to Rs 163.70.
The stock gained 8.61 per cent to Rs 163.85, on the NSE.
"Hinduja Group is evaluating the Jet Airways opportunity," the group said in a statement Tuesday.
Shyam Sekhar: Bad numbers can also be Buy signals
Some Q4 results are really good. Some need to be read between the lines. Some are still not showing any sign of pr… https://t.co/rFqcecL7f7
Investors on Dalal Street should keep their shopping list ready, as the bulls are looking charged on the back of a likely end to political uncertainty by the end of Thursday.
Already, equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty are hovering near record highs after the exit polls projected a clear mandate for the Narendra Modi-led NDA in the Lok Sabha elections.
Market experts see more legs to this rally with over 10 per cent upside in next 10 months with bullish views on sectors like private banks, textiles, chemicals, select NBFCs, capital goods, construction and infrastructure.
DLF jumps 6% on March quarter numbers
Price as on 22 May, 2019 11:15 AM, Click on company names for their live prices.
Shares of Tech Mahindra fell almost 4 per cent in Wednesday's session to Rs 745.30, a day after the company reported a 7.32 per cent YoY drop in consolidated profit at Rs 1,132.50 crore for the March quarter.
Nomura: Maintained its neutral view on the stock with a target price of Rs 800, implying a 4 per cent upside. It said that the weaker enterprise outlook negates progress in telecom.
Kotak Securities: Gave an add recommendation on the stock with a target price of Rs 850 while cutting the earnings per share (EPS) estimates by 5-6 per cent.
CLSA: Reiterated the outperform rating on Tech Mahindra with a target price of Rs 810 but underscored that the revenue was a miss while margins were in-line with the expectation.
IDFC First Bank falls 4% on ICRA downgrade
Shares of IDFC First Bank declined over 4 per cent to Rs 41.50 in Wednesday's session after rating agency ICRA downgraded the long-term rating of the private lender.
ICRA on Tuesday downgraded the long-term rating of IDFC First Bank on the back of weak earnings profile and increase in provisions due to unanticipated fresh stressed exposures identified by the bank.
Five listed companies of the financial powerhouse –HDFC, HDFC Bank, HDFC Life, HDFC Asset Management and Gruh Finance – have a combined market value of Rs 11.66 lakh crore. The combined m-cap of 29 Tata Group companies stands at Rs 11.64 crore, about Rs 2,000 crore less than that for the HDFC Group.
Shares of Dewan Housing Finance Corporation (DHFL) cracked nearly 18 per cent in Wednesday's trade, a day after the NBFC said it would neither accept new deposits nor allow premature withdrawals.
Premature withdrawals would be allowed only in cases of medical or financial emergency, DHFL said.
The decision comes just after rating agency CARE downgraded DHFL’s fixed deposit programme worth Rs 20,000 crore from A to BBB-.
Crisil had earlier downgraded Rs 850 crore worth of DHFL commercial papers due to delays in fund inflows from asset sales and securitisation deals. About half a dozen investors have shown interest in buying stakes in DHFL.
Rupee gains 5 paise against US dollar in early trade
The rupee ticked higher by 5 paise to 69.67 against the US dollar Wednesday amid weakness in the greenback and easing crude oil prices. Strong FIIs inflows and higher domestic equity markets also improved sentiments for the rupee, forex dealers said. At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic unit opened almost flat at 69.70 against the dollar and then it strengthened by 5 paise to quote at 69.67 in early trade.
Podcast: What might move & shake your market
DHFL, RPower, YES Bank. DLF among most active stocks on NSE
Price as on 22 May, 2019 09:26 AM, Click on company names for their live prices.
OPENING BELL: Sensex, Nifty flat; VIX plunges 13%; DHFL nosedives 17%, IDFC First Bank 4%
Sensex jumps 220 points, Nifty above 11,750; rupee opens at 69.67 against the US dollar.
Singapore trading sets stage for positive start
Nifty futures on the Singapore Exchange were trading 11.50 points, or 0.10 per cent, higher at 11,738, indicating a positive start for the Nifty50.
Asia shares on shaky ground
Asian stocks were on shaky ground on Wednesday, as earlier relief over Washington's temporary relaxation of curbs against China's Huawei Technologies failed to offset deeper worries about trade frictions between the world's two largest economies. South Korea's KOSPI fell 0.45 per cent and Japan's Nikkei edged up 0.05 per cent.
MS expects Brent to hit $75-80 range in H2CY2019
Morgan Stanley expects Brent crude prices to trade higher in the $75-$80 per barrel range in the second half of this year, projecting a significant tightness in the oil market.
Brent edges lower on Saudi assurance
Oil prices fell on Tuesday after Saudi Arabia reiterated it would aim to keep the market balanced and try to reduce tensions in the Middle East, while industry data showed a surprise increase in U.S. crude inventories.Brent crude futures were down 37 cents, or 0.5%, at $71.81 at barrel by 0037, having risen 21 cents on Tuesday.
US stocks settle higher
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 197.43 points, or 0.77 per cent, to 25,877.33, the S&P500 index gained 24.13 points, or 0.85 per cent, to 2,864.36 and the Nasdaq Composite added 83.35 points, or 1.08 per cent, to 7,785.72.
Re ends flat against dollar
The rupee on Tuesday rose marginally by 2 paise to close at 69.72 against the US dollar in a lacklustre trade as participants preferred to sit on the fence ahead of the results of general polls.
US eases curbs on Huawei
The United States has temporarily eased trade restrictions on China’s Huawei to minimize disruption for its customers, a move the founder of the world’s largest telecoms equipment maker said meant little because it was already prepared for US action.
FIIs buy Rs 1,185 cr worth equities
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought Rs 1,185.44 crore worth of domestic stocks on Tuesday, data available with NSE suggested. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 1,090.32 crore, data suggested.
Sensex on Tuesday
BSE flagship Sensex plunged 383 points or 0.97 per cent to 38,970. Its NSE counterpart Nifty slipped 119 points or 1.01 per cent to 11,709. India VIX rose 9.23 per cent to 25.86.
Good Morning, dear reader! Here's something to kickstart your trading day