Traders’ Diary: Nifty range at 11,900-12,300 zone

Wall Street dips on lack of fresh update on trade talks

ETMarkets Evening Podcast: How RBI policy move has changed D-Street outlook

Nifty to see upside in the coming sessions. The recent consolidation in the index was healthy. The immediate support is seen at 11,950-11,960

- Rohit Singre, LKP Securities

Nifty would again fall to 11,935, if it trades below 11,980. On the higher side, until the market crosses 12,170, the bullish trend should remain suspicious

- Shrikant Chouhan, Senior Vice-President, Equity Technical Research, Kotak Securities

Nifty appears to be moving inside the 18-day-old ascending channel, drawn from the high of 12,034 hit on November 8. Unless the lower boundary of the said channel, whose support lies around 11,950 level, is breached, weakness in the index will not get confirmed

- Mazhar Mohammad, Chartviewindia.in

ETMarkets Special Podcast: Has RBI rate cut cycle come to an end?

At the current juncture, Nifty is hovering around the lower end of the channel and the 20-EMA on daily chart. On the sectoral front, gains in the IT space got evened out by a corrective move in banking heavyweights. Going forward, Nifty needs to sustain above the 12,000 mark to witness an up-move towards 12,158 and then 12,250 levels. On the flipside, strong support is placed in the 11,935-11,950 zone and then 11,880 level

- Chandan Taparia, Technical & Derivative Analyst, MOFSL

Market ended marginally lower in the eventful session, in continuation of the prevailing consolidation phase. Participants were in the cautious mood from the beginning ahead of the RBI policy meeting outcome. We expect consolidation to extend further, thus traders should continue with the stock-specific approach. We suggest preferring index majors and keeping positions on both sides. Also, maintaining a close watch on global markets for cues

- Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking

A precautionary pause due to high food inflation and the tepid pace of transmission of previous rate cuts prompted RBI to turn more vigilant on the inflation trajectory. A steep cut in GDP growth forecast to 5 per cent for FY20 seems to be more realistic, and it raises prospects of more government intervention to revive consumption and investments activity

- Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services

CLOSING BELL: Growth concerns, RBI disappointment send Sensex 71 pts lower; Nifty barely holds above 12,000

Given the current economic and temporary inflation scenario, the unchanged policy rate is in line with our expectations. As there has been reasonably high liquidity in the system and limited transmission of the earlier rate cuts, RBI decided to maintain status quo. We expect the private capex to make an entry due to corporate tax cut and banks to start lending aggressively to reduce existing liquidity

- Umesh Revankar, MD and CEO, Shriram Transport Finance

OPEC+ seeks deeper oil cuts of over 400,000 bpd -sources

RBI surprised with a unanimous preference for status quo on policy rates, despite observing there was room for a rate cut, due to, as governor stated, slow transmission of earlier rate cuts. The onus clearly shifts to banks, which in our view shall have to hasten transmission on non-repo linked loans

- Ravikant Bhat, Senior Analyst BFSI, IndiaNivesh

The decision to leave rates unchanged is appropriate. Taking a pause at this juncture, after five consecutive rate cuts is justified. So far, repo rate has been brought down 160 basis points (bps) from August 1, 2018, however, demand continues to remain sluggish. The real estate sector is yet to reap out benefits out of it, which is reeling under liquidity pressures. The banks need to pass on the benefits of the previous cuts to the customers and help boost demand

- Ravindra Sudhalkar, ED and CEO, Reliance Home Finance

This is tantamount to an implicit rate hike - premature and unwarranted, in our opinion, because this is a demand-side reaction to supply-side retail inflation. Growth is left unaddressed. At least the saving grace is that no ammunition was expended on piecemeal measures. We still hope that the growth priority prevails and a substantial easing is brought about in the next policy cycle

- Ranjan Chakravarty, Economist, Metropolitan Stock Exchange

Banks need to hasten transmission on non-repo linked loans: Ravikant Bhat, IndiaNivesh

A rate cut could have provided much required reprieve to some ailing sectors like real estate and auto: Shishir Baijal, Knight Frank India

Stronger fiscal stimulus is required to stem this fall without which it could be still lower as we move into the next financial year. Measures to stimulate demand needs to be taken immediately, in the absence of which counter cyclical actions may not bear fruit.

- Joseph Thomas - Head of Research, Emkay Wealth Management

Expect no rate cut till inflation comes back to 4% level: Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Do you agree with RBI's contention that sudden spike in inflation calls for pause in policy rate cuts?

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CAN'T SAY

RBI’s rate pause and the second successive sharp downward revision of GDP estimate for FY20 have been surprising. More than flare in inflation, lack of transmission of rate cut seems to have been the bigger reason for the rate pause. We, however, expect RBI to resume rate cut in Jan’20. We also expect FY20 GDP growth to be better than RBI’s revised estimate

- Sujan Hajra, Chief Economist, Anand Rathi Shares & Stock Brokers

Forex kitty hits a new high, sniffs at $452 billion

Here are key takeaways from the money policy review:

Against an almost consensus market expectation of a rate cut based on the slowdown seen in growth, the MPC seems to have chosen to focus on its mandate of inflation management and have recognised that the latest CPI print and expected prints over next few months would be higher than their targeted level and also a belief that past rate cuts will help to support growth with focus on transmission.

- Sudhakar Shanbhag, Chief Investment Officer, Kotak Mahindra Life Insurance

The Reserve Bank of India has kept the policy Repo rate unchanged at 5.15% against the ambitious Street projections of 50 bps. The MPC has specifically mentioned keeping an accommodative stance in the future to revive GDP Growth. We have already seen quite a few rate cuts in the past and going forward we believe that accommodative stance would be maintained. What we need is Credit Growth to pick up as you see there have been 135 bps cut in policy repo rate since Feb-19 but the transmission in the Credit market is sluggish and partial in G-Sec. We need to see transmission happening in Lending Rates across the market. The Union Budget is two months away so we believe we can see certain measures post Budget.

- Mustafa Nadeeem, CEO, Epic Research

Top 50 NBFCs being regularly monitored by RBI: Das

It was an unexpected move with the RBI keeping the repo rate unchanged at 5.15 percent, as the market expected 25 bps cut in repo rate. With the RBI following a inflation targeting regime, the Central Bank focused on maintaining the inflation rate within the target range. The rising food inflation posed a challenge to the Central Bank in cutting the rates. However, by maintaining the accommodative stance, there is room for rate cuts in the future

- Deepthi Mary Mathew, Economist, Geojit Financial Services

Don't want to get into discussion on real-interest rate

- RBI Guv

Want clarity on counter-cyclical steps govt announces

- Shaktikanta Das, RBI Guv

The MPC unanimously voted for a status quo on the policy rate, defying the wide expectations of yet another repo rate cut. The pause on the rates is attributed to transient inflationary risks, though the central bank affirms that there is space for policy action. Given the growth-inflation dynamics, we still sense that RBI will deliver a rate cut of 25bps in February policy meeting given the widespread deceleration in the economy. Although RBI is concerned about near-term inflation risks, higher Rabi crop output will assuage the spike in food prices. Benign core-inflation will also persuade RBI to remain accommodative.

- Amar Ambani, Head of Research - Institutional Equities, YES Securities

Rate cut must be done when impact is maximum: RBI Guv

VIX rises 9%

Urban co-op banks with assets over Rs 500 crore to be under RBI reporting framework

- Shaktikanta Das, RBI Guv

Telecom tariff hike may impact inflation

- Shaktikanta Das, RBI Guv

To allow up to $10 million FX derivatives deal without exposure: Shaktikanta Das

There is a need to optimize the impact of rate reductions: Shaktikanta Das

RBI has finally thrown the ball back in Government’s court to revive the economic engine which has further deteriorated since the last meet. Transmission of interest rates have not happened yet which could be one of the reasons RBI waited to cut rates and nudged the Government and banks to take efforts from their end. Additionally, slightly higher inflationary tendencies might have also led to the pause in rate cut. But, this is a negative for the markets as a rate cut was required to boost risk taking appetite in the economy.

- Jimeet Modi, Founder & CEO, SAMCO Securities & StockNote

Forces driving up inflation seems to be transient

- Shaktikanta Das, RBI Guv

Foreward guidance is itself indicates that there is space available for further monetary policy action: Das

At this critical juncture, monetary and fiscal policy continued to work in coordination to achieve best results in the national endeavour to revive growth

- Shaktikanta Das, RBI Governor

Slowdown in GDP growth cushioned by govt expenditure

- Shaktikanta Das, RBI Guv

Service sector activity stayed subdued in Oct but tourist arrivals picking up in Nov: RBI Guv

Seeing some greenshoots in economy: RBI Governor

First take: RBI policy decision

April-Sept 2020 GDP growth seen at 5.9-6.3%

MPC unanimously votes for status quo on repo rate

Oct-March GDP growth seen at 4.9% to 5.5%

October-March 2020 CPI inflation seen at 4.7-5.1%; April-Sept 2020 CPI inflation seen 3.8-4%

Fall in deposit rate augurs well for loan rate transmission

- MPC

October CPI print was much higher than expected, says MPC

Delay in domestic demand revival is a key downside risk to GDP

MPC expects inflation to rise in the near term

MPC sees need to address impediments holding back investments

FY20 real GDP growth projection lowered to 5% from 6.1%

Stance to remain accomodative as long as required: MPC

MPC recognises there is monetary policy space for future

RBI keeps repo rate unchanged

Zydus Cadila files NDA for Saroglitazar Magnesium

Well, MPC really has no other alternative, simply because if it did not do it, the consequences, at least in terms of sentiment would be adverse, knowing full well that a typical 25 bps cut would make no difference at all. So perhaps a 25 bps cut will be there. But Shaktikanta Das is dovish and much more willing to take the bull by the horns. If he were to exercise his veto power and say we need to do more, who knows, maybe some relatively unconventional measures like longer term OMOs, a CRR cut which has not even been talked about, could be tried and that would have more effect in terms of transmission.

- Mythili Bhusnurmath

HDFC AMC falls nearly 5% as OFS kicks off for retail investors