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Hemang Jani

Feb 24, 2020, 05.00 AM IST

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HEMANG JANI

Bet on smaller banks for 5-10% upside, but long-term outlook weak: Hemang Jani

Hemang Jani, Senior Vice-President, Sharekhan, says on a broader level, things are not looking too good for the market in terms of earnings. Even banks are hinting that slippages could continue to be on the higher side, he adds.

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  • There can be a case for disappointment from financials in terms of overall growth. At the same time, certain sectors are back in the reckoning like telecom and certain mid & smallcap stocks. Wherever you see a sector showing better delta in terms of growth and the midcap space is showing good numbers, money could move from banking to these sectors.

    Hemang Jani, Senior Vice President, Sharekhan, says the Maruti stock is already up about 20-25% from the lows and there is not a very strong visibility in terms of the growth in the next couple of quarters. The delta has been positive but we have a long way to go in terms of getting a big growth back into the cycle.

    In terms of the NPL cycle and loan growth, there is a huge disconnect between what is being reported by banks and what is generally being expected and that continues to be a major worry. Also, there is over-ownership across private banks as the weightage is still very high and most of the investors are hiding in very few banks.

    Seeing a strong rebound across midcap and smallcap stocks, says Hemang Jani.

    We are looking at a 35-40% growth in the operating profit for Airtel. Biocon has its own growth story and there is no pricing pressure. We are expecting good strong numbers from Tech Mahindra as it is much cheaper than the rest of the IT companies. In medium to long-term, among cement stocks, Ramco, JK Lakshmi & UltraTech present good opportunities.

    We should not try to move into smaller banks or PSU banks other than SBI just because they are cheap because the environment around us continues to be difficult. Stay with the quality where there is a growth visibility and a reasonably good asset quality. The focus will continue to be on HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, SBI and Axis Bank.

    For now, market to focus on the same bunch of performers in 2020 as well. People would continue to go for companies where there is some degree of growth visibility. Once we are witness to some sort of revival in the economy and risk appetite is back as also flows, you will see broader market participating in a big way.

    The focus now will shift to earnings positive surprises and to the companies, better placed in terms of margins, etc., says Hemang Jani, Sen...

    We are seeing a bit of green shoots in the passenger vehicle category though the actual growth or the positive delta is not too good. One can take comfort from the fact that we are seeing a bit of revival. Maruti per se is looking good but I do not think the slowdown is really reduced in broader auto pack.

    Some of the metal stocks or sectors which were not in favour like metals and telecom are coming back.

    The same set of companies which have shown some performance would continue to do well.

    Among cues that we could be looking at for the next broader move of the market,earnings would be on top of mind. People would start talking about what kind of numbers we are looking at and whether there is really any indication of revival in midcaps and smallcaps. That is something that we would definitely be watching out for.

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