- Donald Trump and Joe Biden are running neck and neck now
- Barclays sees VIX plunging to pre-Covid level in clear Biden win
- As election uncertainty sweeps markets, the pros hold steady
- Why India may have strategic repercussions if Trump loses election
- Asia’s money managers buy gold, china stocks to hedge US election
- Value stocks could shine after US election, no matter who wins
- Investors turn skeptical of US Democrat ‘Blue Wave’ victory
- Should one buy or avoid IT stocks going into US elections?
“It does appear that emerging-market investors are slightly more sanguine about risks through the end of the year than what you’re seeing in developed markets,” said Nick Stadtmiller, a strategist at Medley Global Advisors in New York.
Goldman reiterated its bullish 2021 view for both natural gas and oil, saying drivers for higher prices supersede the potential outcomes of the U.S. election.
Despite the uncertain timing, investors are betting that more stimulus will come eventually.
"Blue wave election outcome (Democrats winning) has curiously flipped from consensus bear to bull catalyst in recent months," the U.S. investment bank said.
In 2016 investors were buying the ruble and selling the peso in expectation the Republican candidate would mend relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin and cut trade ties with Mexico after winning the election. This time around, the trade has reversed as Joe Biden gains in the polls.
The outcome of the first debate increased “the odds of first Joe Biden becoming president, but also in line with the Democrats also taking the Senate,” said Shahab Jalinoos, global head of macro strategy with Credit Suisse in New York. “That’s obviously been a tail wind for markets since.”
S&P 500 index futures rose 0.3% as the debate ended, building on earlier gains of 0.16%, but analysts say neither side emerged a clear winner. The dollar barely moved and Treasury yields held steady.
America’s main equity index jumped again as trading began in New York, the latest reversal after it closed Tuesday with a 1.4% drop.
Most people have already decided who they are going to vote for and his testing positive for Coronavirus would not have a major impact on the outcome of the election, says Michael Kugelman.
The industry is likely to keep many of its wins as Democrats prioritize more pandemic aid, healthcare, tax reform and financial rules that address racial injustice, environmental and inequality issues, rather than attacking banks, said nearly a dozen lobbyists and policy experts in Democratic circles.
S&P 500 futures pointed to a day in the green, havens including bonds are seeing little demand and the greenback is down.
There are three possible outcomes for this election and Indian stock market will rejoice in all three scenarios -- a Biden and Democrat win, a divided Congress and a status quo Trump victory.
Many investors are concerned, however, that a serious decline in Trump’s health less than a month before Americans go to the polls on Nov. 3 could roil a U.S. stock market that recently notched its worst monthly performance since its selloff in March while causing turbulence in other assets.
Trump’s late-night announcement on Twitter that he had tested positive for the coronavirus was the latest in a long list of frustrating variables for investors eager for signs of stability.
News of Donald Trump's positive coronavirus test on Friday triggered a decline in oil prices and stocks.
Biden has proposed taxing capital gains and dividends as ordinary income, which would increase the tax rate from 20% to 39.6% for individuals and couples earning over $1 million, the highest tax bracket.
Democratic nominee Joe Biden is ahead in national polls and in betting markets the former vice president is favored to win with an average 59% likelihood, according to RealClearPolitics.
The post-election data for index performance for one month also showed indices gained in four out of five previous US elections.
The risk that yields pop higher is deemed so unlikely that traders of eurodollar options are more focused on a possible year-end funding squeeze than the U.S. election.
Following the debate, the domestic stock market was muted, while US index futures saw deep cuts. Other Asian markets traded mixed, with Korea and Hong Kong gaining and Japan tripping.
A new alignment against China is coming up. India and the USA are getting together in a strategic sense and that will carry on regardless of who wins the election, says Swaminathan Aiyar.
Even as Joe Biden’s tax plans could deter the markets, former Goldman Sachs chairman Jim O’Neill believes he would be a better choice than Donald Trump, given the latter’s erratic and aggressive moves.
US elections are scheduled for November 3. If there is a dispute, the political parties would have time until December 8 to resolve the differences. If no resolution is possible, electors would cast votes again by December 14 in such a case.
‘In terms of the direction of the market, it is going to be a sideways market from here until the US election.’
Broadly speaking, analysts say Biden's plan to raise corporate taxes could pressure company earnings. But they expect him to support infrastructure projects and renewable energy.
With a tight race and President Donald Trump already questioning any outcome that doesn’t have him defeating rival Joe Biden, trading volumes are likely to spike to as much as eight times their normal levels on Nov. 3, according to technology-consulting firm ITRS Group Ltd.
The individuals and small businesses that are suffering from the lockdown need some real help, stimulus.
If one candidate emerges stronger on Tuesday, "the debate could be an individual stock and sector play," said Jack Ablin, Chief Investment Officer at Cresset Wealth Advisors.
Market for Trump or Biden? The short answer: Neither. Wall Street is less partisan than most people think
If polls continue to point to a Biden victory in the 2020 presidential election, there will be a temptation to attribute any further tremors in stock prices to fear that a Biden administration would bring socialists into the White House.
With the attention of many investors turning toward November’s elections as a source of risk, the cost of hedging against a contested or delayed result is getting ever more pricey.
Named after Trump’s inscrutable “covfefe” tweet from May 2017, the index attempts to gauge the impact of Trump’s tweeting on the U.S. Treasury market through interest rate derivatives known as swaptions.
'There's a bubble developing in different parts of the world. Some of the US stocks that seem to never go down currently, are going to go down a lot some day and many people are going to suffer. '
‘It is just about being in quality, controlling risk and being sensible about what you do.’
Net futures bets on a lower dollar totaled $32.67 billion, close to their highest point in a decade, the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed.
Regardless of who wins the Nov. 3 election, some market watchers say, markets are likely to grow more turbulent.
Though the view from New York is that India’s first quarter GDP may be worse than expected, as the stock market has never seen earnings that have been so low in more than 30 years if not more, the index continues to hover at a record of over 30 times PE.